朱宁对话诺奖得主席勒：美股像极了1929年股灾之前

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来历：经济参考报

2020年，千载难逢的新冠疫情席卷全球，全球化遭受严峻冲击，国际经济堕入阑珊，价值和族群空前撕裂。面临百年未有之变局，由凤凰网、我国企业改革与开展研讨会主办，经济参考报战略支撑的“2020凤凰网财经峰会”在北京举行，本届峰会以“破局与重生”为主题，盛邀政商学界尖端嘉宾，环绕全球和我国经济开展建言献计，凝集一致。

在“2020凤凰网财经峰会”落幕对话上，2013年诺贝尔经济学奖得主、耶鲁大学经济学教授罗伯特-席勒与上海交通大学上海高档金融学院金融学教授、副院长朱宁就股市、房地产和国际关系等论题展开评论。

值得留意的是，罗伯特·席勒正是朱宁在耶鲁大学攻读金融学博士学位时的导师，这场可贵的师徒对话也为观众献上了一场思想的盛宴。

股市：美股处于非理性昌盛状况现在像极了1929年和2000年“股灾”之前

本年年头，美股受疫情影响全球股市暴降，可是随后却呈现报复性反弹并屡次创造新高。关于美国股市的反常体现，席勒表明，依据“周期调整市盈率”的理论，商场或许现已处于非理性昌盛的状况。

“在美国前史上只要几个时期的股指像现在这么高，一个是1929年，在经济大惨淡之前，另一个是2000年，也便是网络泡沫之前”。席勒还表明，相较于1929年和2000年，其时商场长时刻利率十分低，所以和前史数据比较现在的股票商场和债券商场都被高估。

依据席勒的问卷查询，在美国他并不是仅有忧虑美股暴降的人。席勒表明，在他查询问卷中一个问题是美股呈现1929年式跌落的概率有多大，在曩昔半年有十分多出资者表明过针对这个问题的忧虑。

“现在的状况和1929年有点相似，那便是咱们惧怕美股跌落，而抱有这一观念的出资者比看好美股的出资者更多，在经济学上有一个预先存在的理论，假定许多人惧怕股市暴降，虽然他们不以为经济呈现问题，可是假如这个主意挥之不去，就有必定概率诱发”席勒提到。

朱宁表明，“前史就任何一种泡沫的呈现都是受新要素的影响，特别是人们从前没有见过的要素。正如其时美股的V型反弹，信任必定出资者很长一段时刻没有讲过，所以个人阅历的缺失在深刻影响咱们的行为”。

此外，朱宁还指出，“本年有一点十分显着的特色，不管在我国股市仍是美国股市散户的数量在疫情期间都有较大起伏的添加，人们要么追加出资，要么被逼采纳更多的杠杆或承当更多的债款”。

房地产：技能和疫情能够让大城市房价跌落

关于房地产席勒以为，“现在首要的财物类别如股票、债券、房地产都很贵，这反映了一种昌盛”。

席勒表明“从前人们遍及以为房价是安稳的，而房地产泡沫这个名词直到21世纪才呈现。美国在19世纪八九十年代，有过一次房地产泡沫，但其时报纸上的一篇文章这样写道‘咱们应该管它叫泡沫吗？不，我更喜爱用昌盛这个词’。可是现在咱们说房地产泡沫，人们忧虑房地产泡沫会幻灭，特别现在这种昌盛只呈现在大城市”。

关于未来房价，席勒以为跟着新技能的开展，大城市的主导位置遭到应战，这是楼市的另一个不确定要素。“现在咱们能够完成跨大洋交流，咱们现已不需求日子在大城市，在家作业是一种趋势，咱们日子变得愈加智能。假如这种趋势继续，大城市的房价就会下降，由于咱们不需求住在大城市了”席勒提到。

席勒还表明，“在大城市要面临拥堵的人群和交通、空气污染等问题，之所以挑选大城市是由于日子在这儿，并且大城市还有餐厅、博物馆、各种扮演等公共设施，但假如由于疫情的原因或许不再享用这些便当，这也会对大城市房价构成影响”。

谈金融科技：金融科技正在加重社会不平等，而这往往有利于极小部分人

关于近期商场评论较多的金融科技，席勒表明，“曩昔人们以为金融科技正在加重社会不平等，往往有利于极小部分人，它们是技能先进、开展敏捷的企业的一部分，这是对自在企业经济的一种忧虑，没有一种理论表明不能呈现技能革新，不能从底子上改动收入分配，不能让人们掉队”。

席勒谈到：“在我最新出书的《叙事经济学》一书中谈到技能立异怎样引发人们的惊骇。追溯前史，人们对技能立异的惊骇古已有之，最长远的能够追溯到公元前4世纪的亚里士多德，在他的一本书中有一段话‘假如机器呈现并替代人类作业’。而最近这个故事的主角被从头命名为‘人工智能’。这是新一轮的惊骇故事，金融科技身为这个故事的一部分也参与其间。现在在股票商场上，你不仅仅在和人买卖，你还在和电脑买卖，机器在学习你的嗜好。假如它们发现你犯了某种过错，机器就会去加以运用”。

朱宁则表明“疫情为某些新技能的运用供给了完美的理由，与此一起，能够必定的是在疫情迸发之后财富分配不平等变得愈加严峻”。

“虽然西方社会在曩昔几十年里一向在尽力测验，可是咱们看到的是收入和财富的不平等益发严峻，这就构成了各式各样的社会问题和政治问题”朱宁提到。

谈国际关系：拜登是一个心地善良的人特朗普大喊大叫看起来很愤恨

谈及中美关系与中美买卖，席勒表明，“在特朗普政府的领导下中美关系变得敌对，特朗普受其参谋彼得-纳瓦罗的影响，他曾写了一本叫《丧命我国》的书，内容十分夸大，他们把许多问题归咎于我国”。

“当不平等变得益发严峻，特朗普他们开端寻求“替罪羊”，那便是墨西哥和我国，墨西哥差遣许多的工人和美国人抢夺作业，而我国出口了太多货品。可是一向以来，美国许多东西是我国制作，我国的开展促进了美国的昌盛，可是特朗普政府反其道而行之。”席勒提到。

虽然无法猜测拜登未来会有哪些详细方针，可是席勒以为他会比特朗普好许多。席勒以为“拜登与特朗普有一个底子差异，拜登是一个心地善良的人，他总是心胸感谢，而特朗普看起来总是很愤恨，他总是拳打脚踢、大喊大叫，一向在气愤，我不以为这对国际关系有优点”。

以下为朱宁及席勒凤凰网财经峰会对话实录：

Zhu Ning: Hello, Professor Shiller. It is very good to have you for the Phoenix Annual Finance Summit. And as we all know that we have gone through a very eventful year for 2020. And as we are approaching the end of 2020, I think the audience in China is very curious about your expert views on so many important issues related to global economy, US politics, US-China relationship, and most of all ideas, the pandemic. So, you have been widely regarded as the expert on behavioral finance and on microfinance. So let me start there.

朱宁：您好，席勒教授。十分高兴您能来参与凤凰财经年度峰会。咱们咱们都知道，2020年是一个艰屯之际。在2020年行将完毕的时分，我想我国的观众都十分猎奇，您这样的专家对全球经济、美国政治、中美关系，这些重要论题有哪些观念，以及您对这次疫情有什么观念。您是公认的行为金融学的专家，也是微型金融的专家。咱们就从这儿说起吧。

What this year I think is quite eventful in the way that the US stock market dropped by more than 30% earlier this year as a result of the pandemic. But then to many people’s surprises, not only did it come back, it came back with vengeance and has set new records. You are the one who have designed this methodology of cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio. And according to your research, you think the US stock market has probably been in bubble or in irrational exuberance for already some time. What's your take on this year’s performance and if you can make some forecast for the coming year?

本年很重要的一个作业是，年头受疫情影响美国股市跌落30%以上。可是后来出乎许多人的意料，股市不光反弹，并且是报复性的反弹，创造了新的股指记载。您创立了“周期调整市盈率”的理论“。依据您的研讨，您以为美国股市或许现已处于泡沫或许非理性昌盛的状况有一段时刻了。您对本年美国股市的体现有什么观念，对来年又有哪些猜测？

Robert J. Shiller: Yeah, the ratio have become widely quoted on, is this CAPE ‘cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio’. For the United States, dated back to 1981, there are only a couple of periods when it's been as high as it is now. One was 1929, just before the Great Depression, and the other was 2000, when there was a major contraction, that was the dot com bubble. Very high level at the market right now. However, we are also in another circumstance right now which is not shared by those two other moments, 1929 or 2000. That is long term interest rates are very low. So, both markets, stock market and bond market were overpriced by historical comparison. And that finds us need to wonder whether there could be a major contraction in the US stock market. It's not the whole world. CAPE ratios in other countries are also high, including countries like China with high exposure to information technology. It’s both a low interest rate boom, it’s also a technology boom. Communication services which tend to be high tech nowadays. We are doing that right now. We are using advanced communication services. So, it's not clear how to compare this with other episodes. A history is like that. It doesn't repeat, but it rhymes. So I don't know right now, where are we going?

席勒：是的，'周期调整市盈率'，简称CAPE，这个比率现已被广泛运用。关于美国来说，追溯到1981年，只要几个时期的股指像现在这么高。一个是1929年，在经济大惨淡之前，另一个是2000年，其时经济萎缩，也便是网络泡沫。现在商场的指数十分高。可是，咱们现在还处在别的一个状况下，这是1929年和2000年所没有的，便是长时刻利率十分低。和前史数据比较，现在的股票商场和债券商场都被高估了。这就引发了咱们国家的考虑，美国股市会不会呈现跳水。国际上其他国家的状况不都是这样。其他国家的CAPE比率也很高，包含我国这种信息技能高度发达的国家。这是低利率带来的昌盛，也是科技的昌盛。现在的通讯服务，往往是高科技的，就像咱们现在运用的先进的通讯服务。所以，无法和前史上的其他时期做比较。前史便是这样，它不是一向在重复的，毫无规则可言。现在我也不知道，未来会怎样开展。

However, I am concerned. And I'm not the only person who is concerned. In the United States, I've been doing surveys and investor opinion. And one of the questions is, what is the probability right now of a 1929 style crash? And in that we're seeing in the last six months, record since I started asking that question. In the late 1980s, record had concern about another crash. So in some people's mind, I cannot predict the stock market with great accuracy in short run, but I would say that it's a bit like, we have a preexisting condition. It’s fear of a crash. It's on everyone’s mind. They are dismissing it now, but it’s on their mind. There is some probability of happening. With Covid19, if you have a preexisting condition, you are more likely to get in trouble，with the disease. I think we have a preexisting condition in economics of fear of another crash. It is similar to what we see the year before the crash, 1928, 1929. That fear was well known than most people thought it was good investment. Same thing is happening right now.

可是，我很忧虑，并且我不是仅有忧虑的人。在美国，我一向在做查询和收集出资者的定见。其间一个问题是现在呈现1929年式崩盘的概率有多大？在这个问题上，在曩昔的半年里我收集到的反响中有十分多的忧虑。好像20世纪80年代末，一些人以为，在短期内他不能十分精确的猜测股市的状况，但他以为，现在的状况和曩昔有点相像。有一个相同预先存在的状况便是惧怕崩盘，每个人都在想这个问题。他们现在以为不会产生经济崩盘，可是这个主意挥之不去。这是有必定产生的概率。关于新冠，假如你以为你或许会感染新冠，那么你感染的概率就会添加。在经济学上，有一个预先存在的条件，便是惧怕再次崩盘。这和咱们国家在崩盘前一年，1928年、1929年看到的状况相似。和大多数人以为现在适合出资比较，这种惊骇愈加众所周知，相同的作业现在也在产生。

Zhu Ning: I guess the people who tend to disagree with the concern or the fear would say that this time may be different because we are going through non-traditional monetary policy, quantitative easing and talking about MMT, the modern monetary theory. In certain countries, during certain periods, we are witnessing and experiencing negative interest rate. So do you think the change of monetary framework is going to change the way how we assess asset prices and bubble as a result of that?

朱宁：我以为不同意这种忧虑或惊骇的人会说，这次或许不相同。由于现在的非传统性钱银方针、量化宽松方针、和现代钱银理论、MMT，在某些时期，某些国家正在见证和阅历负利率。所以你以为钱银系统的改动会不会改动咱们对财物价格和经济泡沫的点评方法？

Robert J. Shiller: Right. Look at the narrative about the monetary framework.

席勒: 是的。关于钱银系统的观念。

Zhu Ning: You are the author of Narrative Economics. Yes, please.

朱宁：您是《叙事经济学》的作者。请说。

Robert J. Shiller: There was the financial crisis over 10 years ago. There was a worldwide phenomenon. At that time, central banks around the world did much more aggressive monetary stimulus than people would have thought. And in particularly adopted quantitative easing. So that was an experiment in monetary policy of 10 years ago. Back then that was controversial. There was a lot of talk about a possible new depression of the stories, of backgrounds became suddenly on people's minds, post 1929 stories. Fear of a great depression suddenly exploded. I can document that with various searches. People were concerned about a crash depression in 2007. But now we are even higher, the market is much higher that it was in 2007, especially in the United States, which is the most expensive stock market in the world. But what happened with the drop this year in stock market. The US stock market between February 19th and March 23rd, fall over. And suddenly made a turn around. So you wonder why did people change their opinion so dramatically in such a short?

席勒: 10多年前产生了全球性的金融危机。其时，全国际的央行都施行了比人们幻想中更活跃的钱银影响方法，一起还采纳了量化宽松的方针。那是10年前钱银方针的一次试验，在其时是很有争议的。有许多关于或许呈现新的经济大惨淡的评论，1929年之后所产生的作业，再次产生的或许性忽然呈现在人们脑海中，人们对大惨淡的惊骇迸发了。我能够查找出其时的各种记载：2007年的时分，人们忧虑会呈现崩盘式的大惨淡。可是现在指数更高了，商场比2007年还高了许多，特别是美国，美国的股市是全球最高的。可是本年股市跌落是什么原因，美国股市在2月19日到3月23日之间跌幅超越30%，然后忽然间暴升。所以，你想知道为什么短短时刻内人们的观念改动如此之大？

It was in crash mode for a month. And suddenly on March 23rd, it turned around. What was happening? You have to say it was something about central bank policy. In the United States, the US federal reserve. And that's the aggressive 2008 stimulus package that involve a lot of new vehicles. That was basically a repeat, maybe more aggressive. I think in a sense, in America, with this aggressive policy, investors thought that this might be the turning point. And then they were reminded that there was a dramatic interest in the stock market starting in the Spring of 2009, just over 10 years ago. And the stock market tripled in less than 10 years to an amazing new high. A lot of people are feeling a sense of regret. I know that the fear of a 1929 style crash was very strong in 2009. So a lot of people got out of the market, only to regret doing that later. The feeling of regret are very motivating. If you made the mistake once, you don’t want to make the same mistake again. So I think people start to come back to the market. There are a lot of people who are in the intermediate state in the March of this year, who thought that ‘this might be the time to buy’. But they just hesitated, and the market start going up. Make the mistake again, so they think maybe it's not too late. And then they push the market up to new highs. So that’s the narrative, a narrative of fear of missing out. Other people were saying ‘it's time to buy and I didn't do it. Oh, my god! Horrible about that’. Also the term ‘vision recovery’ became very popular at that time. And I think it drove the recovery to new heights. People didn't know what to make the Covid19 epidemic. And they didn't know whether they should be out or in of the market. And so there was a rapid learning about epidemics that took place between February and March. And it continued to push the market up after March of 2020.

在曩昔的一个月美国股市处于溃散形式，3月23日状况忽然改动了，究竟产生了什么？不得不说这和美国央行方针有关。受美联储影响，就像2008年的经济影响方案，影响汽车作业的开展，其实是相同的手法，或许更活跃算了。我以为在某种意义上，在美国，这种活跃的方针，是出资者以为的或许的转折点。然后他们想起，从2009年春天开端，10多年前，股市开端迅猛添加，在不到10年的时刻里翻了3倍，创下了惊人的新高，许多人悔之不及。我知道2009年的时分，人们对呈现1929年式的崩盘的惊骇十分激烈。所以许多人都退出了商场，却懊悔莫及，懊悔的力气是十分强壮的。假如你犯过一次过错，你不想再犯相同的过错，所以咱们开端回归商场。在本年3月份的时分，许多人摇摆不定，他们以为‘现在或许是买入的时分’。但他们仅仅犹疑了一下，商场就开端涨了，所以又犯了过错。然后他们以为现在或许还来得及，然后把商场推上新高，这便是叙事经济学关于人们惧怕错失的故事。有人说‘是时分买了，但我没买。天哪，我太懊悔了'。此外，"复苏的愿景"这个词在那个时分变得十分盛行，而这进一步影响了出资者。人们不知道新冠会怎样开展，他们也不知道自己应该出局仍是入市。所以在2月到3月，人们敏捷了解疫情或许构成的影响，并且在2020年3月后继续推高商场。

Zhu Ning: So as we have discussed for quite some time, a key ingredient of any bubble is the new things, things that people have not seen before. And as you pointed out, I think the V-shaped recovery, it's definitely something that investors have not seen in a very long time, at least in the US stock market. So is that personal experience or the lack of personal experience that is a deeply modifying our people’s behavior. And speaking of missing out, I think there is another important cause, which is China’s real estate, which is having a similar kind of condition. And people who make jokes about there are probably two biggest bubbles in the whole world right now, one is the US stock market, the other being the Chinese housing market. And you're a leading expert in real estate, we have talked about the housing market in China for quite some time. And I think you have always expressed some concerns with the housing prices in China. But then you also sort of explain that because the economy is growing very fast, many things could be potentially justified. So with the economic growth gradually come to slowdown in China and also with China's household level of indebtedness has increased tremendously in the past five years or so. Also with Shanghai and Shenzhen becoming some of the most expensive cities in housing prices in absolute terms, what’s your updated review about Chinese housing market?

朱宁：正如咱们评论过的，任何一种泡沫的呈现，都是受新要素的影响，特别是人们从前没有见过的。而正如你所指出的，V型复苏必定是出资者在很长一段时刻内都没有看到的，至少在美国股市是这样。所以仍是个人阅历的缺失，在深刻影响咱们的行为。而提到缺失，我以为还有一个重要的原因，便是我国的房地产，它也有相似的状况。人们恶作剧说，现在整个国际上或许有两个最大的泡沫，一个是美国股市，另一个是我国房地产商场。您是房地产范畴的威望专家，咱们也屡次谈论过我国的房地产商场，并且您一向对我国的房价表明有一些忧虑。可是您也说过，由于我国经济添加十分快，许多东西都有或许是合理的。跟着我国的经济添加逐步放缓，我国家庭的财物负债水平在曩昔五年多的时刻里有了很大的进步。一起上海和深圳成为房价必定值最高的一些城市，您对我国的房地产商场有什么最新的点评？

Robert J. Shiller: Oh, that's a big question and not necessarily the world's authority on Chinese housing market. It's a funny situation that we see in the world today. We are all asset classes. The major assets, stocks, bonds and housing are all expensive right now. That reflects a sort of euphoria. But it's tinged with fear. A fear that this might be a harbinger of hard times to come. So people are willing to buy at high prices. That’s unusual situation. Real estate seems to be developing a bubble. Much more happened in the past. The prevailing view among economists is that housing prices are driven by construction class. There is so much land, even in China or the US, that is not that expensive. So I can build a house for you if it isn't in Beijing or Shenzhen. I can build the house for you really cheaply and that was a prevailing view that home prices are stable. And the word ‘housing bubble’ didn’t even come into our vocabulary until the 21st century. They didn't even talk about those terms. I can search for that now with digitized text. There was a housing bubble in the United States in the 1890s, 1880s and I found the newspaper article with someone that writing ‘Should we call this a bubble?’ And he said, ‘No, I like the term boom better because boom doesn't have the connotation that it's going to burst’. So they had housing boomsand they didn't have housing bubbles. But now we've got a new narrative that makes people worry that it might crack down and especially it’s a big city boom. It's not in the countryside so much, although maybe it may also be there. But right now the dominance of big cities is question with new technology. And this is another source of uncertainty about the housing market. Right now we are communicating across oceans. We don't need to live in big cities so much anymore. The question is will you work at home? I think, gradually grow now. And we live more electronically. We have our friends, meetings, meetings with their friends electronically. In that case, it sounds like big city home prices will fall if people don’t need to live there anymore. You want to fight crowds and traffic in the big city and air pollution and all the big city problems. You are attracted to big cities because of events there, because of things like restaurants, or museums, or shows. But if you're reconsidering, I don't want to do those things so much because of Covid19. That also harms big cities. I don't know where that narrative is going. There could be drops in the relative price of big city housing. We have to see how it places out, how it works at home, work at distance. Maybe your future is living in some beautiful rural place. And nonetheless not sacrificing one's career in doing that. Is he getting more international? It seems like, I have friends all over the world now. You don't have to be talking to your neighbors. You can ignore your neighbors and have friends elsewhere.

席勒: 这是一个很大的论题。我对我国房地产商场的观念也不用定威望，这是咱们咱们看到国际上一个风趣的状况。现在首要的财物类别，股票、债券、房地产都很贵，这反映了一种昌盛，但它又带有惧怕的颜色，这是忧虑困难时期或许到来的征兆。所以人们乐意以高价买入，这种状况不同寻常。房地产泡沫好像正在构成，曩昔有许多比方，经济学家遍及以为，房价是由修建推进的。有那么多土地，即便是在我国或美国，也没有那么贵。假如不是在北京或许深圳，我能够以很廉价的价格建房。从前人们遍及以为房价是安稳的，而 "房地产泡沫 "这个名词直到21世纪才呈现在咱们的词汇中，之前从来没有呈现过。我现在就能够查一下，美国在19世纪八九十年代，有过一次房地产泡沫。报纸上的一篇文章这样写道：‘咱们应该管它叫泡沫吗? 不，我更喜爱用昌盛这个词，由于昌盛没有暗含幻灭的意思'。所以他们叫房地产昌盛，而不是房地产泡沫。可是现在咱们说房地产泡沫，人们忧虑房地产泡沫会幻灭，特别现在这种深重只呈现在大城市。虽然在村庄或许也会呈现，可是不多。现在跟着新技能的开展，大城市的主导位置遭到应战，而这也是楼市的另一个不确定要素。现在咱们是跨大洋在交流，咱们现已不需求日子在大城市。问题是咱们是否能够在家作业，我想这是一种趋势，并且咱们的日子会变得愈加智能。咱们在线上碰头、开会，和朋友在线上碰头。假如是这样的话，大城市的房价就会下降，由于咱们不需求住在大城市了。在大城市，你还要面临拥堵的人群和交通，还有空气污染和一切的城市问题。你挑选住在大城市，是由于那里的活动，那里的餐厅、博物馆或各种扮演等等。但假如由于疫情的原因，你不再享用这些便当，就会对大城市的房价构成影响。我不知道人们对此会作何反响，大城市住所的价格或许会相对有所下降。这要看作业怎样开展，人们在家怎样作业，怎样远距离作业，或许未来你会住在某个美丽的村庄。虽然如此也不会因此而献身自己的作业，咱们是不是越来越国际化了？现在我的朋友遍及国际各地，你不用和你的街坊说话，你能够疏忽你的街坊，在其他当地交朋友。

Zhu Ning: New technology. I think it's not just changing the way how people do business or live their lives. Finance has been heavily influenced by the development of modern technologies. I think in China probably a very booming area in the past few years so called Fintech or Techfin, the hybrid of information technology with traditional financial services were actually the emergence of using modern technology, trying to fill the gaps that's been left by traditional finance. And I think you have talk about this topic at length in your book, New Financial Order. And you have been a strong advocate for trying to use modern technology or financial technology, trying to make financial services available to everyone and trying to help everyone who services. But then I think a big event in China was, you probably have heard that from news is, the IPO of Ant Technology, which is the renamed of Ant Financial was stopped by surprise. Because of concerns with antitrust, or concern with the booming of their loan business without proper regulation. And what's your comment on what's the boundary, or what's the balance between innovation, or Fintech and regulation, and consumer welfare.

朱宁：新技能。我以为它不仅仅改动了人们经商或日子的方法，金融现已深受现代科技开展的影响。在我国，曩昔几年里一个蓬勃开展的范畴，叫金融科技或许科技金融，是信息技能与传统金融服务的混合体，其实便是运用现代科技的呈现，企图添补传统金融留下的空白。而您在《金融新秩序》一书中，现已详细地谈到了这个论题，并且您一向大力提倡运用现代科技或许金融科技，让每个人都能享遭到金融服务，协助每一个它所服务的人。可是后来在我国产生了一件大事，您或许在新闻上看到蚂蚁科技的IPO，也便是原名蚂蚁金融的IPO被忽然叫停。由于出于对反垄断的问题的忧虑，以及他们“过于“蓬勃开展的借款事务没有得到恰当的监管。您怎样点评立异，或许说金融科技和监管，以及保证顾客福利之间的边界，或许说平衡点是什么。

Robert J. Shiller: You know there is a narrative that Fintech is adding to inequality. And that tends to favor a very tiny fraction of the population, who become a part of an enterprise that is technologically advanced and rapidly growing. It could be right. This is a concern about free enterprise economy that there is nothing in the theory that says there can't be a technological change that would fundamentally alter the distribution of income and leave people behind. I talked about it in my latest book Narrative Economics about how technological innovations awaken fears. So I tried to trace back how long go ahead have people been worrying about technological innovation. And the furthest back, I can really trace it was Aristotle in the 4th century BC. There is a paragraph on one of his books saying that‘if machines come along and replace jobs’. I think is the example of if weaving is done by a machine instead of by hand, that will run the risk of workers becoming useless in fabrics. So this idea has been around a long, long time. I called one of my perennial narratives. But it's been especially strong in the last couple of hundred years as industrial revolution took place. It was particularly important in the 19th century when machines became available that would replace farm labor and the percent of the population, who is engaged in farming, a tiny amount, I think in the United States is around 2% of the working population does farming because machines have taken it over. And more recently, the story has become renamed with the term ‘Artificial Intelligence’. And this is a newly scary story. Fintech is right there up front as part of this story. Now when you're in the stock market, you're not trading with just people, you are trading with computers. A machine learning about your quirks. If they discover that you make some kind of mistake, the machine will go after you and exploit you. So this is a fear that is on people's minds continuously for decades now with artificial intelligence. And it has the potential to explode again and do another epidemic of fear. This epidemic right now is supportive of the stock market. Because people like to buy tech stocks. And it makes them feel that they may be inadequate to participate directly in the technology revolution.

席勒：你知道有一种说法，金融科技正在加重社会不平等，而这往往有利于极小部分人。他们是技能先进、开展敏捷的企业的一部分，这或许是对的。这是对自在企业经济的一种忧虑，没有一种理论表明不能呈现技能革新，不能从底子上改动收入分配，不能让人们掉队。我在最新出书的《叙事经济学》一书中谈到技能立异怎样引发人们的惊骇。追溯前史，人们对技能立异的惊骇古已有之。最长远的，能够追溯到公元前4世纪的亚里士多德。在他的一本书中，有一段话说："假如机器呈现并替代了作业"。我想是这样的一个比方，假如机器替代手艺织布，那织造工人就会变得无用，所以这个主意现已存在很久很久了。这种忧虑一向存在，但在曩昔的几百年里，跟着工业革新的产生，这种忧虑越发激烈。特别是在19世纪，机器开端用来替代手艺农业劳动。很少的一部分劳动人口，现在美国只要大约2％的劳动人口从事农业作业，这是由于这些作业现已被机器接收。而最近，这个故事的主角被从头命名为 "人工智能"。这是新一轮的惊骇故事。金融科技身为这个故事的一部分，也参与其间。现在，在股票商场上，你不仅仅在和人买卖，你还在和电脑买卖，机器在学习你的嗜好。假如他们发现你犯了某种过错，机器就会去加以运用。所以这几十年来，人们对人工智能的惊骇日益增强。并且它有或许再次迸发，成为一种盛行。现在疫情促进了股市的出资，人们开端出资科技股，这是他们直接参与科技革新的方法。

Zhu Ning: Worth to use certain technology during this pandemic, so providing perfect justification.

朱宁：疫情期间，某些技能的运用是值得的，供给了完美的理由。

Robert J. Shiller: Right. Both US and China have a strong technology sector. This is an important factor in the stock market. But that doesn't explain the housing boom. It’s a little bit difficult. I think that is a generalized fear that make people want to put down roots, have a nice home, worried they will get out of rich for them.

席勒: 是的。美国和我国都有强壮的科技作业，这是股市的一个重要要素。但这并不能解说房地产商场的昌盛，这有点困难。我以为这是一种遍及的惊骇心理，让人们想扎下根来有一个好的房子，自己会因此而富起来。

Zhu Ning: Talking about the poor and the rich, I think one thing is probably close to certain, that is the inequality in wealth distribution has become even worse over the pandemic. I think that's probably the case in China and the US.

朱宁:提到穷人和有钱人，我想有一件事是能够必定的。便是在疫情迸发后，财富分配的不平等变得愈加严峻了。我以为我国和美国的状况都是这样。

Robert J. Shiller: Right. The pain of suffering in the epidemic is related to your economic status. If you can't afford to pay for deliveries, or if you can't afford to pay extra health bills. You are in trouble. You might be living in crowded conditions where there is too many people around so you can't isolate.

席勒:没错。应对疫情的才能与一个人的经济位置有关。假如一个人付不起外送费用，或许一个人付不起额定的医疗费用，这个人有麻烦了。他或许日子在人群密布的环境中，周围有许多人无法做到阻隔。

Zhu Ning: I know in your book New Financial Order, you have come up with financial innovation trying to reduce the income or wealth inequality. But then I think the west society have been trying to do this for the past few decades, but as we have witness, I think the income and wealth inequality have become worse. And that's creating all sorts of social and political problems. And especially coupled with the pandemics. What would you recommend if you have something that governments or the policy makers trying to consider, trying to solve, or at least alleviate this problem of income inequality?

朱宁：我知道在你的《金融新秩序》一书中，你提出了金融立异，企图削减收入或财富的不平等。可是我以为西方社会在曩昔几十年里一向在尽力测验，可是咱们看到的是收入和财富的不平等益发严峻，这就构成了各式各样的社会问题和政治问题。特别再加上疫情的影响，你对政府，或许方针制定者有什么主张，怎样处理，或至少减轻收入不平等的问题？

Robert J. Shiller: I wish I were more of a politician. I have written books and relieving these things. There's a lot of different aspects to it. For example, a lot of people worry about housing. And they are following the housing market with apprehension. So there could be contracts that protect them against lose. We actually work with the Chicago Mercantile Exchange to create a futures market for single family homes. This aggregated by regions. This might become a new form of gambling playing in the futures market. But it hasn't. It's not a big success. People are not used to hedging their risks in the housing market. Another thing is that the risk of livelihoods are not really managed by modern financial or insurance technology. So I was thinking, in the futuristic term, I’m not limited by what is already been done. I was thinking of institutions that would provide home equity insurance against collapses in the housing market. Or new kinds of mortgages that would protect people against changes in housing prices. This is part of the indebtedness we've already mentioned. People borrow a lot of money to buy a house, and the loan is not contingent on home prices. So if home prices drop, there's an economic contraction. You might find it difficult in default. That's what happened in the 2009 crisis. There were mortgage default. So you think it would be more creative thinking. But I think about how to change the mortgage. But that's not something that happens fast, unfortunately in history. There has been the so called shared appreciation mortgages that we tried out over the last 20 years that would take some of the risk of home prices, but they haven’t flourished. I think that there could be more general insurance and livelihood insurance that protect you against. It should be the same spirit that we do for entrepreneurship. Inventions could apply to individual entrepreneurship. You could insure a few. They start to see this. You have companies who teach you computer skills. And you don’t pay them until later. And if you don't get a job as a computer expert, your tuition is waived. This is an interesting development.

席勒：我也期望我是一个政治家。我的书里写到怎样缓解贫富差距，能够有许多不同的行动。比方说，许多人忧虑的住所问题。人们怀着忐忑的心境重视着房市，所以能够有一些合同维护他们不受丢失。其实我和芝加哥商品买卖一切协作，建立了一个按区域分部的独栋住所的期货商场。这或许会成为期货商场上的一种新玩法，但它并没有成功。人们不习惯于在房地产商场对冲危险。别的，民生的危险没有真实的用现代金融或许稳妥技能来办理，所以我在想，未来有或许的话，不局限于现在现已做的作业，能够有组织供给房子财物稳妥避免房地产商场崩盘。或许新式典当借款，维护人们不受房价改动的影响。这便是咱们国家提到的财物负债的一部分。人们借了许多钱去买房子，而借款是不以房价动摇而改动的。假如房价跌落，就会呈现经济萎缩，人们很难不违约。2009年的经济危机便是这样，呈现了房贷违约，所以需求有更多的立异思想。我想的是怎样改动典当借款，但这不是立刻就能做到的，前史上也是相同。在曩昔的20年里，咱们一向在测验所谓的同享增值典当借款，能够承当一些房价的危险，可是它们并没有蓬勃开展。我以为能够多一些一般性的稳妥和民生稳妥，维护人们的利益，这和咱们对创业的情绪是相同的。创造能够用于个人创业，人们能够多重稳妥。现在现已有相似的立异，有的公司教人们电脑技能，之后才付费。假如没有找到计算机相关的作业，膏火就免了，这是一个风趣的开展。

Zhu Ning: The imbedded option.

朱宁：嵌入式的选项。

Robert J. Shiller: Yeah, I think that these things tend to grow. I think that career insurance is really an important thing that would make people be more willing to take risks with their careers. Right now a lot of people all go for the same MBA, Masters of Business Administration, which is a good thing, by the way.

席勒：是的，我以为这些东西会越来越多。我以为作业稳妥真是一个很重要的东西，会让人们更乐意为自己的作业开展承当危险。现在许多人都去读MBA，工商办理硕士，这是功德。

Zhu Ning: By the way, I have been a Professor before.

朱宁：对了，我从前当过MBA讲师。

Robert J. Shiller: There is a sense that finance jobs are not as lucrative as it used to be. Commissions are coming down. So it's hard to make money in the traditional way in finance. So I think we could improve our institutions and gradually we are, things are happening. We will make our risk management better. And risk management is critical, saying Covid19 is substantially evolved with our economic fortunes. And the spread of that disease is higher in poor sections. So we have to. It is a big problem, but we don't talk much to epidemiologist as economist. If you ask me to make a forecast now, I feel kind of helpless cause I’m not an epidemiologist. That's a specialty that economists don’t share.

席勒:现在的感觉是金融业的作业不像从前那么挣钱了。佣钱在下降，所以很难用金融的传统方法挣钱。我以为咱们需求改进准则，而这些改动正在逐步产生。咱们国家需求加强危险办理，危险办理至关重要，疫情在很大程度上是受经济环境影响的。这种疾病在贫困区域的传达率更高，所以咱们有必要做出改动，这是个大问题。但作为经济学家，我和盛行病学家交流不多。假如你让我现在做出猜测，我觉得有点困难，由于我不是盛行病学家，这不是经济学家的特长。

Zhu Ning: Right, and this is something I want to ask but probably you have thought about it. You forecast about how quickly the virous will kick in and keep the pandemic situation under control given the vaccines.

朱宁:对，这是我想问的问题，不过你或许也意料到了。你猜测病毒会以多快的速度迸发，并在疫苗的协助下操控疫情？

Robert J. Shiller: Well, that has been an important boost to the world stock market. Because people think long term. They've been trained to do that. And they think they going to get a vaccine, and this whole thing will disappear. So why shouldn’t I buy a home for a few years in the stock market? It seems inevitable. With our learning experience, the drop in February and March of this year in stock prices. Especially in the West, which haven’t had a SARS epidemic, they are not used to wearing face masks. They are embarrassed to go out public with this funny mask on. So they don't do it. But they had to learn that there are pandemic, and they do end. In past pandemic, stock markets haven’t reacted that much. In 1918, there was a worldwide influenza epidemic. It did create a recession, but only a mild recession. And you don't see it very much in stock. When I look at the US stock market in 1918, it ended up lower but not a crash. But by 1920, it was very low.

席勒:疫情对全球股市来说是一个重要的推进。由于人们总是着眼长时刻，咱们便是被这样练习的。人们以为总会有疫苗，疫情就会消失。那么我为什么不能够在股票商场上出资呢? 这好像不可避免。依据咱们的阅历，本年2月和3月股价跌落，特别是在没有阅历过SARS疫情的西方国家，人们不习惯戴口罩。他们以为戴着口罩呈现在公共场合十分诙谐，所以他们不乐意戴口罩。但他们有必要知道，疫情正在延伸。在曩昔的流感大盛行中，股市的反响没有那么激烈。1918年，国际范围内迸发了盛行性感冒。它的确构成了经济阑珊，可是十分细微，股票商场的反响也不大。当我回忆1918年的美国股市时，它虽然有所跌落，但没有崩盘。但到了1920年，股市变得十分低迷。

Zhu Ning: Afterwards, big run up before the greatest depression, they triggered people’s reaction after the influenza in 1918.

朱宁：商场反响滞后，大惨淡之前经济大涨，1918年流感推迟引发了商场反响。

Robert J. Shiller: The stock market boom began after the influenza epidemic in past. And so is the new world with optimistic sense. You can tell story about the roaring twenties and high appreciation of stock market over that period.

席勒：曩昔，流感疫情产生后股市开端昌盛。现在，人们也是相同的达观，好像轰轰烈烈的20年代股市市值飙升高增值时分。

Zhu Ning: But one thing was very clear this year, both in China and the US, the number of retail investors have increased by wide margin during the course of the pandemics. Do you think that's because of the fear of missing out? Or it's because of the subsidies given out from the government, or because people were so bored quarantine at home.

朱宁：但本年有一点十分显着，不管是在我国仍是美国，散户的数量在疫情期间都有较大起伏的添加。你觉得是由于怕错失机遇吗，仍是由于政府发放的补助？或许是由于人们阻隔在家太无聊了？

Robert J. Shiller: This is all part of my theory. I’ve noticed personally. I have a financial markets free course online. And my number of students soared during the quarantine period. I’m getting emails from some of my students, there is nothing to do. And the financial markets are wild. This is time to learn about finance. I still think it's a good career to go into, if you like that kind of thing. Some of the best careers are oversubscribed, like neuroscientists. That’s an exciting field. When I visited a neuroscience conference, someone said to me, ‘this is a really exciting field, but the problem is too many young people who are going to it’. There aren’t enough jobs for researches in neuroscience.

席勒: 我理论中也有讲到这些。我也留意到了，我在网上有一个金融商场的免费课程，而我的学生数量在阻隔期间陡增。我收到一些学生发来的邮件，他们在家无所事事。而现在的金融商场体现张狂，这正是学习金融常识的时分。我仍是以为这是一个很好的作业，假如你喜爱这些东西，有些作业现已饱满，比方神经科学家，这是一个令人兴奋的范畴。有一次我参与一个神经科学会议，有人对我说，‘这是一个十分令人兴奋的范畴，但问题是这个范畴的年轻人太多'，而神经科学的研讨作业岗位没有那么多。

Zhu Ning: Also talking about investment for education or just investment itself. It seems that people are either more interest in or are forced to take out more leverage or more debt. The level of leverage has increased tremendously considerably this year for most countries. And China was no exception. I think the national level of a better GDP ratio increased by about 40 percentage points, which make China one of the most heavily indebted country in the world, probably next to Japan. There are very diverging views on this topic. Some feel that this is potential systemic risk to China's economy going forward, whereas others feel that many of debt were used for infrastructure, for technology innovation. And so that should be sustainable growth. Could you share some of your insights about this topic?

朱宁：提到教育出资，或许说出资自身。人们要么追加出资，要么被逼采纳更多的杠杆或承当更多的债款。本年大多数国家的杠杆率水平都有很大的进步，我国也不破例。我以为国家层面，体现比较好的GDP占比添加了40个百分点左右，这使得我国成为国际上负债最重的国家之一，或许仅次于日本。关于这个问题，咱们的观念分作南北极。有的人以为这是我国经济未来潜在的系统性危险；而有的人则以为这些债款是用于出资基础设施、技能立异的，所以添加是可继续的。您能不能共享一下您对这个论题的一些观念？

Robert J. Shiller: Yeah, the rise of debt was also a very important concern in 1929. People were buying stocks on margin before the 1929 crash. You could get a loan then to buy a 90% of the value of your stock market investment. And there was a lot of talk about. I've done searches about that. In 1929, when the market dropped in one day, people thought the end is near. That indebtedness narrative became very strong. So it’s with us again today. But I think, again, it is kind of preexisting condition. We are a little bit fear for this situation. But nobody can prove that it's going to result in a crash. And even if it does, people will think it will come backup. But I think it's a preexisting condition in the sense that if something else hits the market. Then people will think that it's maybe the indebtedness did it and markets will come down. So that is a concern.

席勒：是的，债款的上升在1929年也是一个十分严峻的问题。在1929年股灾之前，人们都是用保证金购买股票。人们能够用借款购买90%的股票出资价值，其时就有许多争议。我做过相关查询，在1929年，当股票在一天内暴降时，人们以为末日行将来临。人们对负债的惊骇十分激烈。今日它又呈现了。可是我觉得，这仅仅一种先决条件，咱们关于这种状况是有点惊骇的。可是没有人能够证明，它必定会导致崩盘。并且即便崩盘，股市也会重启。可是，假如有其他要素冲击商场，这是一个既存条件。那么人们就会以为或许是负债导致的股票跌落。所以这是一种忧虑。

Zhu Ning: Probably my last question for you today is about the important topic of US China relationship. With the two largest economies, the two largest countries in the world and with a new election results, and a new president coming into office in a few months, many were hopeful that the relationship between US and China will probably improve in the next few years. And a specific area that's concerning Chinese or Chinese companies is the recent investigation on the possibility of banning Chinese companies listing their shares in the US if certain requirements were not met? I think I probably know your political views all along going forward. What do you think the narrative would become in the US China relationship and also the trade tension, and also the economic, the collaboration in economy and in technology, and in certain other areas such as national security.

朱宁：我今日的最终一个问题是关于中美关系这个重要议题。中美是国际上最大的两个经济体，最大的两个国家，并且跟着新的推举成果的产生，还有几个月，新的总统行将就任，许多人都期望未来几年中美关系或许会有所改进。最近产生的一些关于我国人或许我国企业的查询，假如不符合某些要求，或许会制止我国企业在美国上市？我想我大约知道您一向以来的政治观念。您以为中美关系中，中美的买卖严峻，还有中美经济，中美经济和技能的协作，还有其他某些范畴，比方说国家安全，会有什么样的改动？

Robert J. Shiller: It's unfortunate that there is antagonist under the Trump administration, and the antagonist relation with China that develop. I have long thought China’s development is benefiting the world, and not being a problem. But Donald Trump took one of his advisers Peter Navarro, who wrote a book called Death by China. I thought it was really over the top. I looked at the book. It was blaming China for all of our mortalities. So I guess when people are worried inequality is widening. They want to see someone to blame for. And it was both Mexico and China that got a lot of blame. Mexico for sending a lot of workers over, competing for your job, and China for sending a lot of goods over. It is remarkable how many things we have that are from China, is all the time. Our prosperity has been developed by China. But the narrative reacted against that. I think Biden would be much better than Trump. I don't know. I can't predict what he will do. But there is a fundamental difference. Biden is a kindhearted man who is effusive in his human settlement. And whereas Trump seem to be angry. He punches, shouts, and he is angry all the time. I don’t think that’s good for international relations. I am hoping for a better, where we could partner together more. And someone could live in China and work in US. Or the other way around. All those things could happen. I’m not optimistic for the stock market of the world. (phone interfere)

席勒：很不幸，在特朗普政府的领导下，中美关系变得敌对。我一向以为我国的开展是谋福国际的，而不是制作问题。可是特朗普受其参谋彼得-纳瓦罗的影响，这个人写了一本书名为《丧命我国》，里边的内容太夸大了。我看了这本书，它把许多原因都归咎于我国。当不平等变得益发严峻，他们开端寻求“替罪羊”，那便是墨西哥和我国。墨西哥差遣了许多的工人，和美国人抢夺作业，而我国出口了太多货品。一向以来，咱们用的许多东西是我国制作，这很了不得。我国的开展促进了咱们的昌盛，可是特朗普政府反其道而行之。我以为拜登会比特朗普好许多，我不确定。我无法猜测未来他会做什么，但有一个底子的差异。拜登是一个心地善良的人，他心胸感谢。而特朗普看起来总是很愤恨，他总是拳打脚踢，大喊大叫，一向在气愤，我不以为这对国际关系有优点。我期望有一个更好的开展，咱们能够有更多的协作。有人能够住在我国，在美国作业；或许反过来。一切这些作业都或许产生，虽然我对国际股市并不达观。

Zhu Ning: And do you have anything else you want to say to the Chinese audience for the upcoming 2021? I know you are optimistic about US China relationship, less so about US stock market?

朱宁：关于行将到来的2021年，您还有什么想对我国观众说的吗？我知道您对中美关系比较达观，对美国股市不太达观？

Robert J. Shiller: Yeah, the US stock market is not horrible compared to the bond market. We have ‘excess KPO’, which is the inverse CAPE ratio minus the interest rate. And the excess KPO is around 4% in the US. 4% a year for long term. The stock market should still outperform fixed income investments. It's just not as dramatic as it has been. In history, the stock market is often a get rich quick investment, like it tripled in values over the last ten years. It then turns a little bit. You never know exactly when. I don't object to investing in the US stock market, but I think we should be more diversified,

across stock prices, real estate. Even real estate investments are okay. The best thing you can do is diversify.

席勒：是的，和债券商场比较，美国股市还好。美国的‘超量KPO'，也便是CAPE比率减去利率得到的数字是4%左右。长时刻来看每年4%，股市的体现应该仍是比固定收益出资要，仅仅没有从前那么好了。在前史上，股市往往是一种快速致富的出资方法，比方曩昔十年股市价值翻了三倍之后就会迎来拐点，你永久不知道详细是什么时分。我不对立出资美国股市，可是我觉得出资应该愈加多元化，包含股票，房地产等等。出资房地产也是能够的，最好的方法便是多元出资。

Zhu Ning: Thank you so much for your time and for your insightful comments. I wish you a good day and a great new year.

朱宁：十分感谢您的时刻，也感谢您的精辟答复。祝您新年快乐！

Robert J. Shiller: My pleasure, thank you.

席勒: 我的侥幸，谢谢。

告发/反响